Super Bowl LIV early betting look: Total is already rising
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The matchup is set. Super Bowl Sunday is still a ways away, so there will be plenty of time until then to explore potential betting options. For now, here's an early look at how I'd bet the game at the current numbers.
Super Bowl LIV
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-1, 54.5)
There will be plenty of opportunities to bet the Super Bowl when props are released later this week, but based on the current market for the side and total, I <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">won't have any action. It was interesting, however, seeing the line move Sunday night during the second half of the Packers-49ers game.</offer> Sportsbooks started posting a Super Bowl line when San Francisco held a 27-0 halftime lead. Most offerings made the look-ahead line PK with a total between 51 and 52. But as the second half unfolded and the Packers' offense started moving the ball through the air, the market started moving on Kansas City and the over. We now see the Chiefs -1 or -1.5, with a total of 54 at most books.
My personal projections make Kansas City a 1.9-point favorite with a total of 51.9, but I have no intention of betting any under unless this number moves up even more. Projections that account for the entirety of the market and data over the course of the season are important, but the specific matchups that will manifest themselves on the field play a role, too. While I have no early-look play in the game, I'll be diving into the team metrics digging for edges that might present themselves on either side
In the meantime, here are some season-long numbers to get familiar with for each team and how they compare to one another entering the big game (remember, Patrick Mahomes missed two games):
[h=2]Numbers To Know[/h]
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ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The matchup is set. Super Bowl Sunday is still a ways away, so there will be plenty of time until then to explore potential betting options. For now, here's an early look at how I'd bet the game at the current numbers.
Super Bowl LIV
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-1, 54.5)
There will be plenty of opportunities to bet the Super Bowl when props are released later this week, but based on the current market for the side and total, I <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">won't have any action. It was interesting, however, seeing the line move Sunday night during the second half of the Packers-49ers game.</offer> Sportsbooks started posting a Super Bowl line when San Francisco held a 27-0 halftime lead. Most offerings made the look-ahead line PK with a total between 51 and 52. But as the second half unfolded and the Packers' offense started moving the ball through the air, the market started moving on Kansas City and the over. We now see the Chiefs -1 or -1.5, with a total of 54 at most books.
My personal projections make Kansas City a 1.9-point favorite with a total of 51.9, but I have no intention of betting any under unless this number moves up even more. Projections that account for the entirety of the market and data over the course of the season are important, but the specific matchups that will manifest themselves on the field play a role, too. While I have no early-look play in the game, I'll be diving into the team metrics digging for edges that might present themselves on either side
In the meantime, here are some season-long numbers to get familiar with for each team and how they compare to one another entering the big game (remember, Patrick Mahomes missed two games):
[h=2]Numbers To Know[/h]
| SF | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| Strength of schedule | 6th | 10th |
| Yards per play offense | 6.0 (4th) | 6.3 (2nd) |
| Yards per rush offense | 4.7 (6th) | 4.3 (20th) |
| Yards per pass offense | 7.9 (3rd) | 7.9 (second) |
| Yards per play defense | 4.7 (2nd) | 5.4 (13th) |
| Yards per rush defense | 4.4 (21st) | 4.8 (27th) |
| Yards per pass defense | 5.3 (1st) | 6.2 (6th) |
| Success rate offense | 16th | 6th |
| Success rate defense | 7th | 25th |
| DVOA offense | 7th | 3rd |
| DVOA defense | 2nd | 14th |
| Sack rate | 8.9% (3rd) | 7.4% (12th) |
| Stuffed rate | 20% (13th) | 14% (27th) |
| DVOA special teams | 12th | 2nd |
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